Türkiye’s Defense Industry as a Foreign Policy Tool: Forecasting the Impact Till 2035
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| Turkiye's Evolution in Defence Industry |
Introduction
In recent decades, Türkiye’s defense industry has transformed from a dependent and externally constrained sector into one of the fastest-growing arms industries in the world. Once shaped by restrictions, embargos, and geopolitical vulnerabilities, Türkiye today boasts an indigenous defense ecosystem that supplies more than 70 percent of its military needs domestically, while exporting advanced platforms—ranging from UAVs to naval vessels—around the globe. This transformation has not only strengthened Türkiye’s military autonomy but also elevated defense production as a strategic tool of foreign policy.
By 2035, the implications of Türkiye’s defense industry on regional and global politics will be profound. Defense exports, strategic alliances, and military-industrial diplomacy are likely to shape Ankara’s foreign relations, positioning the country as a pivotal actor between NATO, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. This blog explores the evolution of Türkiye’s defense industry, its growing role in international relations, and a forecast of its impact on global politics over the next decade.
Historical Background: From Ottoman Legacy to Modern Republic
Türkiye’s defense industry traces its roots back to the Ottoman Empire, where weapon production was centralized in imperial foundries and naval shipyards. The empire’s decline, however, coincided with growing dependence on European arms manufacturers. With the birth of the Republic in 1923, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk recognized the need for self-reliance in defense, but limited resources and political instability kept the sector underdeveloped.
The turning point came in 1974 during the Cyprus intervention, when U.S. arms embargoes left Türkiye vulnerable. This moment catalyzed a policy of defense industrial independence. State-led initiatives laid the foundation for indigenous firms like ASELSAN (electronics), TAI (aviation), and ROKETSAN (missiles). Over time, these institutions became the bedrock of Türkiye’s defense ecosystem, supported by private ventures such as Baykar and Otokar.
Rapid Transformation After 2000
The 2000s marked the true acceleration of Türkiye’s defense sector. Driven by consistent state support, procurement policies, and rising R&D investment, the industry began producing advanced land vehicles, UAVs, naval vessels, and precision-guided munitions.
Field Experience: Turkish Armed Forces operations in Iraq, Syria, and Libya provided invaluable battlefield feedback, shaping platforms like Bayraktar TB2 drones into combat-proven assets.
Industrial Scale: By 2024, Türkiye hosted more than 3,500 defense companies managing over 1,100 projects, employing more than 100,000 people.
Financial Growth: Defense exports crossed $7 billion in 2024, a historic milestone, with projections of $15 billion by early 2030s.
Domestic Self-Sufficiency: Over 70 percent of defense needs are met indigenously today, expected to rise beyond 80 percent by 2025.
This transformation reflects not just military pragmatism but also strategic foresight: weaponry became not only a tool of defense but also of diplomacy.
Major Defense Platforms and Companies
Türkiye’s defense sector today spans across domains—land, air, sea, and cyber.
Air Platforms
Baykar (Bayraktar TB2, Akıncı, Kızılelma): The TB2 drone became a symbol of Türkiye’s technological leap, widely exported to countries from Ukraine to Azerbaijan and Africa.
TAI (Hurjet trainer, TF-X / KAAN 5th-gen fighter, ATAK helicopters): The KAAN fighter, expected to rival global 5th-gen jets, represents Türkiye’s ambition for aerospace independence.
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| KAAN's Proto-type 2 |
TEI Engines: Development of indigenous jet and UAV engines has reduced reliance on foreign suppliers.
Naval Platforms
Indigenous shipyards like Sedef, ADIK, and Yonca-Onuk have built corvettes, frigates, and fast attack craft.
The flagship TCG Anadolu (L-400), a multipurpose amphibious assault ship with carrier capabilities, showcases Türkiye’s blue-water naval ambitions.
Land Systems
Otokar, FNSS, and BMC produce tanks (Altay MBT), APCs, and armored vehicles widely used domestically and exported.
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| Altay Main Battle Tank with New Upgrades |
Roketsan leads in missiles and rocket artillery, while MKEK continues as the traditional state arms producer.
Electronics & IT
ASELSAN and HAVELSAN dominate in communications, electronic warfare, and cyber defense.
Türkiye is investing in space defense and satellite technologies, aligning with broader geopolitical goals.
Defense Industry as a Foreign Policy Tool
Türkiye’s defense exports are increasingly integrated into its foreign policy strategies. Defense deals carry not only economic value but also diplomatic leverage.
1. Regional Influence in the Middle East and North Africa
Turkish drones have been decisive in conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Azerbaijan, reshaping battlefield outcomes.
Arms exports to Gulf and North African states enhance Türkiye’s role as a counterbalance to Western and Russian suppliers.
2. Europe and NATO Relations
Despite tensions with the U.S. and Europe over issues like the S-400 purchase from Russia, Türkiye’s indigenous systems (such as KAAN fighter and Hisar air defense) reduce dependency on NATO.
Eastern European states, alarmed by Russian aggression, increasingly view Türkiye as an alternative supplier. Ukraine’s partnership with Baykar is a notable case.
3. Africa and Asia Pivot
Türkiye’s defense industry is central to its Africa outreach, with deals signed in Ethiopia, Morocco, and Tunisia.
In Asia, partnerships with Pakistan, Malaysia, and Central Asian republics enhance both defense cooperation and political alignment.
4. Soft Power and Prestige
Exporting battle-tested systems boosts Türkiye’s global image. The Bayraktar TB2 has almost become a cultural icon, symbolizing cost-effective but reliable military technology.
Forecasting the Impact Till 2035
Looking ahead, Türkiye’s defense industry will evolve as both an economic driver and a foreign policy lever. Several key trends can be anticipated:
1. Strategic Autonomy by 2030
By 2030, Türkiye is likely to meet 90–95 percent of its defense needs indigenously. This autonomy will shield Ankara from Western embargoes, giving it greater flexibility in foreign policy decisions, particularly within NATO and in relations with Russia and China.
2. Expansion of Global Exports
Defense exports could exceed $20 billion by 2035, rivaling mid-tier producers like Israel and South Korea.
Africa and Asia will remain the largest markets, while selective partnerships with Europe (e.g., Eastern Europe) will grow.
3. Aerospace Leadership
The success of KAAN 5th-gen fighter jet will be a watershed moment. If it achieves full operational capability by the early 2030s, Türkiye could become one of the few non-Western states producing advanced fighters.
Indigenous jet engines by TEI will eliminate a long-standing dependency gap.
4. Naval Expansion
With vessels like TCG Anadolu and upcoming frigates/destroyers, Türkiye will emerge as a Mediterranean naval power. By 2035, Ankara could project force deeper into the Red Sea, Horn of Africa, and Indian Ocean.
5. Diplomatic Leverage
Defense cooperation agreements will become a backbone of Türkiye’s diplomacy. Joint ventures with states like Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine will create strategic alignments that outlive mere transactional ties.
Arms deals will be tied to broader packages of trade, investment, and infrastructure, extending Ankara’s global footprint.
6. Technology and Cyber Power
Türkiye will integrate artificial intelligence, hypersonic systems, and space-based assets into its defense production.
Cyber defense companies like HAVELSAN will play a dual role in securing domestic networks and offering solutions to foreign allies.
Challenges Ahead
Despite its impressive trajectory, Türkiye’s defense industry faces obstacles that could shape its path till 2035.
Technology Transfer Barriers: Advanced systems (e.g., jet engines, stealth materials) still require foreign collaboration. Restrictions from the West may slow certain projects.
Economic Pressures: Defense R&D requires sustained funding. Türkiye’s economy will need stability to maintain $3–5 billion annual R&D spending.
Geopolitical Risks: Exporting arms to conflict regions may attract criticism or sanctions, especially from the U.S. or EU.
Competition: Israel, South Korea, and China compete in similar markets (drones, armored vehicles), creating price and innovation challenges.
Conclusion
By 2035, Türkiye’s defense industry will be more than a shield—it will be a sword of diplomacy, a lever of economic growth, and a statement of sovereignty. Its transformation from a dependency-ridden sector in the 20th century to a globally competitive exporter in the 21st underscores Ankara’s strategic foresight.
Defense exports and partnerships will increasingly shape Türkiye’s relations with Africa, Asia, Europe, and beyond. With indigenous platforms like the KAAN fighter jet, TCG Anadolu, and Baykar’s next-generation drones, Türkiye is positioning itself not only as a regional power but also as a global defense supplier.
The industry’s future, however, will depend on maintaining technological innovation, financial sustainability, and balanced diplomacy. If these challenges are managed, Türkiye’s defense industry will stand by 2035 as one of the most influential foreign policy instruments in the country’s history—bridging continents, shaping conflicts, and redefining alliances.
To Explore More, Read Strategic Vigor of Turkiye
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