Dealing with Af-Pak Security Quagmire?

 USA, Republican Party, Democratic Party, US Diplomatic Relations

 

 Joe Biden as 46th Head of State is going to assume the office today on January 1, 2021.  The Biden Administration has to cope with diversified strategic issues in the upcoming days. (See How will the Biden Administration have an Impact on South Asian Security?)

South Asia where mistrust and misperception have converted Pakistan and India into adversaries is a significant region having important strategic dynamics. It is an inevitable facet of the international system. Thus, the Biden Administration has to confront major challenges and also reinvigorate its policies regard

Afghanistan

ing the South Asian (SA) region (See Expert Opinion on How will the Biden Administration have an Impact on South Asian Security?). Analysts emphasize the following aspects of the US security policy (See Strategy for Competition) regarding SA. 

First, the Afghan chapter of policy would remain of significant importance. Previously, the Trump administration pursued a policy of withdrawal from Afghanistan and signed a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban to materialize the troop’s withdrawal (Also See Examining the U.S. military’s use of force short of war). This development proved a blow to the US prestige as a superpower and also begot national demoralization. 

Afterward, dealing with the troops' withdrawal issue is a major challenge to the Bidden Administration. Under such a scenario, Mr. Bidden has to prove a charismatic role for the USA to ameliorate both the US strategic prestige and the economic vigor. According to analysts, the following features of the US-Afghan policy are very important; 

(a)To secure the US repute and restore its national morale on one hand and to secure the national objectives while strengthening the military bastion in Afghanistan on the other would be a real challenge. The time would prove how Washington formulates its fecund strategies to cope with it. Anyhow, there will be a little leverage to the Bidden Administration in the shape of the US establishment. 

(b)The USA security establishment would completely be harmonious to the decisions of Mr. Bidden because it has already remained reluctant to the withdrawal policy. On the other hand, the rational calculations would require the US administration to get rid of the Afghan quagmire. The unconventional war in Afghanistan and the zig-zag terrains do not seem to end the war immediately. It will further bleed and undermine the US economy. 

Hereafter, security competitors such as China and Russia would manage to benefit from the situation. So, this tenet of policy would be hard enough (Further study, How a Biden presidency could change US relations with the rest of the world). c) To secure Afghanistan through building an Afghan national security arm has proven less effective previously. There may be options to strengthen it further. However, there may be subversive possibilities also. Particularly, when the Taliban has a positive image in the majority of the Afghan public, the parallel security build-up in Afghanistan would be questionable and seek a real military prowess and acumen. 

d) To involve India in Afghanistan and give a tremendous role to New Delhi would be an additional choice for Washington in the upcoming strategic gamut. Off-course, the former has enjoyed the latter’s favor under previous regimes for strategic gains in Afghanistan; the Bidden Administration can also forge India for securing its military victory in Afghanistan. 

However, this pursuit would also exacerbate security competition not only in South Asia but also at the international level. Analysts predict the following fallouts of the said above policy aspect. e) Taliban views the Ghani Government as pro-India and would enormously justify their cause of war against the USA. They have also warned India against its secretive role in Afghanistan. Subsequently, the conflict seems to expand. This situation would also increase the swampy scenario for the USA. 

Second, Pakistan would be another foremost focus of the US security policy under the Bidden Administration. On this chessboard, the milieu of mistrust and misperception would evolve immensely. The US decision-makers misperceive Pakistan as the treacherous character during the war against the Taliban. On the other hand, Pakistan inculcates mistrust regarding the policy courses of the US establishment throughout the last three decades. 

This mistrust deepens further when the USA and India concluded the recent defense pacts during Michael R. Pompeo’s visit to New Delhi on October 26, 2020. Accordingly, the following prospects must be the outcome of the US policy regarding Pakistan. (a) With ambitions to continue military ambitions in Afghanistan, Pakistan stands as a prominent character in the future scenario. The USA cannot ignore Pakistan's ally role during military engagement in Afghanistan because the logistic support cannot be ignored. 

The USA seems bound to rely on Pakistan for the strategic supply. However, this is possible only when the USA’s strategic objectives are in congruence with Pakistan's national interests. Otherwise, there will be disagreement as the situation exacerbated in the past. (b) With mistrust prevailing in the Pak-US relations, the military engagement in Afghanistan would be extremely servile. 

The logistics will be difficult and intermittent. The milieu of mistrust and misperception would worsen further. Thus, the result of the military operations in Afghanistan will not differ from the previous negative outcomes of the war. Therefore, the Bidden Administration has to act realistically and the rational calculus of security policy must be exact and result-oriented.  

(c ) Under unfriendly relations, Pakistan would join anti-US forces in Afghanistan and work to undermine US interests. The guerrilla war would intensify and the US contribution to the global system would continue to weaken. This antagonism seems to take place because of the following facts; 

(i)This will happen when the US-India partnership will convert into a security alliance, undermining the balance of power in the region. ii) Pakistan would join anti-USA forces if US-Sino rivalry gets ruthless. This is mainly because of Pakistan's deep strategic partnership with Beijing and a determination to get away from US influence. 

As the current scenarios of the cold war between Washington and Beijing in various strategic areas are evident, the rivalry seems to change into adversarial relations. So will be the fate of the US-Pak relations. Under such circumstances, the USA's decision to continue the war in Afghanistan would be costly because the war would never end apparently.

Third, the Indo-US strategic partnership would be the most significant tier of the US South Asian policy. This phenomenon of Indo-US relations is the direct result of the realistic approach of the latter’s security rhetoric.  

The complex development in the international system influenced the USA to lean towards India in the past. On the parallel hand, the nascent security competition between China and the USA has compelled US decision-makers to forge India as a strategic partner. 

This is the living reality that the Bidden Administration has to continue it as the robust hallmark of the USA’s consistent security policy. Accordingly, there are minimum chances of sincerity for the US-Pak strategic commitment. Thus, the continuation of the war in Afghanistan appears contrary to a rational choice for the Bidden Administration.

To wind up, the future of stability and peace in the SA region confines to the policies Mr. Bidden pursues during his tenure 2021-2024. The withdrawal from Afghanistan and the stoppage of war is more viable than bearing its likely future cost. 

In the jingoist pursuit, the quagmire-like situation is the fortune of both the USA and the regional countries. Under such scenarios, the regional countries particularly Pakistan should be realistic and ready for the upcoming adverse impacts of the Bidden Administration’s policies.