The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out some 30 days ago in wake of the bleeding mistrust in the spectrum of the international security dilemma. Analysts have penned down much on this circumstance and profoundly assessed why the war took place. They have also accentuated the objectives of the two sides.
A wide range of analysis has been made regarding the existential backdrop of the conflict. Therefore, it is very little needed to explore the aforementioned facts again. However, regarding the war and its likely ramifications vis-a-vis peace and stability in the future, it is necessary to make insights to abridge the enormous holes in the aspect of international order.
In the first part, the war scenario would be analyzed concerning its latest developments. In the second part, the post-war scenarios deserve to be penetrated.
Accordingly, this Azerbaijan and Armenia war is the first international conflict which has moved towards another shift in warfare for a variety of reasons:
First, the tanks and APCs have become the relevance of the past centuries only. Second, the traditional fortifications alongside the borders have become more vulnerable than ever before due to the viable drone strikes. Third, this war has proven that men and drones are the future war instruments. Fourth, the deployments of remotely controlled devices such as combat unmanned Ariel vehicle (UCAV) have proven their operational dominance.
Subsequently, the Armenian war machines badly failed in confrontation with the drones used by the Azeri Forces. The Russian military tanks, acquired by Armenia to bolster its defense bastion were destroyed in unaffordable numbers. Similarly, the other moving targets such as Armenian Armed Personal Carriers proved worthless against the strike drones. The same grave situation seemed to be self-evident regarding the Armenian deployment alongside the Azeri boundary.
Interestingly, this war has accentuated the operational relevance of the men and drones when Azeri Forces effectively used Turkey made war drones on the battlefield. Therefore, it is a rationale to maintain that the usage of men and drones is the new destiny of warfare in the upcoming period. Similarly, the air defense regarding the striking UCAVs will attract parallelly the resources and skills in future anti-drone air defense and will increase the burden on the defense budgets of the adversaries.
Therefore, the current war between Azerbaijan and Armenia has led to many strategic phenomenon on one hand and has unveiled the shallowness of the realistic international order on the other. This war has not only proven the death and destruction as the direct outcome of the realistic international order but also exposed it to be unfit for the human existence on the planet.
To understand the bleeding aspect of the realistic international order against human peace and stability, the following prospects are of significant importance which can be taken into consideration as under:
First, the regional and extra-regional powers seem to involve in the war and persist to share their due share of international order through this war. Second, the competition among the aforementioned powers has explicitly appeared. Moreover, the mistrust and misperception have proven the misconduct of the realistic international order.
Simply, the decision-makers of these powers have made diatribe against one another over the afore-mentioned issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and have also asserted to influence other sides' involvement through threats. This scenario shows how a grave result the international system can beget.
Third, the current war between Azerbaijan and Armenia has highlighted the strategic arrogance of the afore-mentioned powers which consistently boast of their military prowess and remain reluctant to get others to change their course of policy. This is again a very sad fact of the afore-mentioned realistic international system which extends the milieu of misperception and mistrust and cannot let the situation to be normal.
Fourth, the said-above current war has proven the fact that the misperception based policies and the greed of the afore-mentioned powers is a strategic blow to peace and stability of the world. Fifth, the war has broken out in a span when humanity is standing on the brink of hazardous Great War which humanity has never seen. Ironically, this war may push the world towards the said Great War even before expectations. Moreover, the predicted Great War will also be a direct result of the afore-mentioned realistic international order.
Consequently, on the ground realities of the Nagorno-Karabakh current war, regional powers such as Russia, Turkey, and Israel and also extra-regional powers such as the USA, France and many others have directly and indirectly involved in the conflict. These powers have suspicions against one another which have exploded in the said-above war. The said powers are a direct competitor in the said war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Therefore, this war theatre has made the realistic International system more hazardous to global peace and stability. Besides, these powers; Russia, Turkey, Israel, the USA, and France, and many others have used more threatening narratives against one another and demanded the other side to quit the war otherwise the grave consequences would be their fortune. Moreover, in the future war scenario, all the said above powers would be the considerable entities, the said-above war has exposed.
Strategic stability is like dew
Recently, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia has seen severity after the US Talks failed on Saturday. Until today, the war as expected has claimed the lives of humans in a large number. The destruction of properties and infrastructure is additional damage. The war does not seem to stop and will cause further death and destruction on both sides. However, the global community during all this bloody war period seems motionless which is extra-turbulent for the sake of global peace and stability.
Finally, of course, the war has witnessed a premeditated shift in warfare and new avenues of defense research and development will open in the future. However, the realistic international system has made the peace and stability situation worst in the world. To end the dejected journey of death and destruction, the regional and extra-powers have to incline towards global peace by applying idealistic and utopian approaches that should be acceptable to every nation in the world instead of restricting to the realistic approach.
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